Nearly one year out from the state’s gubernatorial primary, most voters haven’t decided who they will vote for, according to a new University of Rhode Island survey published Monday.
The third annual Rhode Island Survey Initiative administered by YouGov took the temperature of 500 adults on housing, health care, the Washington Bridge, media consumption and politics. The margin of error was 6.1%
In a hypothetical, four-way primary between Gov. Dan McKee — the only declared candidate at the time of the August survey — and potential challengers Helena Buonanno Foulkes, Attorney General Peter Neronha, and House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi, McKee maintained a 3.5% lead over no. 2 Neronha.
The most prevalent answer from those surveyed, however? “Not sure” was the response from four in 10 of the 362 registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who answered the question.
“The way I read this is that we’re a long way out from the primary, especially in the minds of Rhode Islanders,” Ashlea Rundlett, associate political science professor and director of URI’s master’s program in international relations, said in an interview on Monday. “At the time, they hadn’t really started campaigns.”
That changed Sept. 9, when Foulkes, a former CVS executive who lost to McKee by three percentage points in the 2022 Democratic primary, kicked off her campaign with a splashy event at Roger Williams Park Casino in Providence.
Rundlett acknowledged that the results of the URI survey, conducted from Aug. 1 to Aug. 18, might look very different if the same question was posed again now that Foulkes has entered the race and McKee has begun campaigning more publicly.
“I expect that even if we were to run this poll next week or the week after, it would change,” she said.
Trading jabs
Hours before Foulkes made her pitch to a crowd of supporters, McKee’s campaign released a digital ad attacking Foulkes for her role in the opioid crisis. A 2024 federal lawsuit against CVS Health accuses the pharmacy giant of knowingly filling fake prescriptions for opioids over a 10-year period, faulting executives — though not explicitly Foulkes — for putting profits over people’s safety.
Christina Freundlich, a spokesperson for McKee’s campaign, took another indirect jab at Foulkes in her response to the survey results Monday.
“While Washington Republicans further restrict access to quality health care, Rhode Islanders can’t afford a governor who turned a blind eye to illegal opioid sales to lead the state,’ Freundlich said. “Rhode Island needs a governor like Dan McKee who will fight for a stronger health care system instead of someone who profited off the opioid crisis.”
Freundlich did not identify Foulkes by name.
Foulkes trailed McKee by four percentage points in the survey with 14.3% also just behind Neronha, who received 15% support.
“Helena is working to earn every vote,” Jon Romano, a campaign spokesperson, said in an email. That’s why she’s holding community gatherings in all 39 cities and towns to hear directly from Rhode Islanders about their concerns and ideas.”
While she is identified as “former CVS executive,” in the URI survey, Rundlett also said she did not think the ties to the controversial company hurt Foulkes’ performance in the survey. McKee’s campaign had not yet released its attack ad at the time of the poll.
Rundlett said poll writers had “extensive discussions,” about what title to give Foulkes, the only non-sitting officeholder, and only woman, among the bunch of potential names on the ballot.
“Ultimately, we ended up choosing what we saw most frequently in the media,” she said of Foulkes’ title. “I also felt like it was a title that said what someone accomplished, versus ‘former candidate,’ which doesn’t say much about who they are or where they come from.”
Neronha did not immediately respond to inquiries for comment on his inclusion in the poll, or second-place level of support. In an interview last week, the term-limited AG said he was still contemplating a run, but had not made a decision.
House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi received the smallest level of support among survey takers — just over 7% — despite being the top fundraiser in the state. The Warwick Democrat did not address his potential candidacy Monday, instead touting the state legislation passed under his leadership.
“The poll confirms that Rhode Islanders care deeply about the accessibility and affordability of housing and health care, two issues which the General Assembly has focused on since I have been Speaker,” Shekarchi said in an emailed response. “There is much work to be done, and I remain steadfast in my belief that we can continue to address these challenges by bringing people together.”
To Rundlett, the race remains open, with all four potential competitors falling within the 6.9% margin of error for the survey question.
“I don’t think it says a ton about who has an advantage,” she said of the results.
Finding disfavor
Especially because McKee struggles to win over the electorate generally.
Roughly 37% of those surveyed disapprove of the way the governor is handing the top leadership role, down 26 percentage points from the public sentiment when the question was asked a year ago. But, that’s in part because this year’s survey gave participants the option to answer “not sure,” whereas the 2024 survey forced them to choose between approve and disapprove, Rundlett said.
McKee’s 29% approval rating this year is in line with results of a pair of polls released in July — one national and one by the Pell Center at Salve Regina University — both showing one-quarter of voters looked favorably on the governor’s job performance.
The new URI poll also indirectly links McKee’s struggles in the public eye to the ongoing Washington Bridge crisis — more than six in 10 named McKee as one of the people “highly” or “somewhat responsible” for the crisis. The Rhode Island Department of Transportation, and its director, Peter Alviti Jr., faced more blame, named by 77% of survey participants.
Foulkes in her campaign kickoff said the expensive and delayed Washington Bridge rebuild was a “glaring example” of McKee’s broader inability to effectively lead, contrasting the five-year replacement timeline with her giving birth to four children in four-and-a-half years.
Freundlich declined to answer questions on the survey results regarding the governor’s approval rating.
This story was originally published by the Rhode Island Current.
