A trade war between the U.S. and Canada will likely be costly for Rhode Islanders.
That’s because Canada is by far the state’s largest international trading partner, accounting for 22% of Rhode Island’s exports to the world.
Rhode Island exports $487 million in goods, plus another $166 million in services to Canada every year. Canada, in turn, exports $1.4 billion a year in goods and services to the Ocean State.
“And what does that mean?” Canada’s Consul General Bernadette Jordan recently asked members of the Rhode Island House of Representatives.
“It means jobs,” she said.
Cross-border trade supports more than 25,000 Rhode Island jobs, according to a fact sheet released by the Canadian Consulate General in Boston.
That includes more than 1,400 jobs at some 45 Canadian-owned companies doing business in the state.
Among them, Middletown-based Linear Title and Closing is a leading provider of title searches and mortgage closing services nationwide. Linear, which employs 85 people according to Rocket Reach, is a subsidiary of Real Matters, an Ontario-based company that specializes in mortgage lending and insurance industry services.
Thousands more jobs import goods from Canada or export them.
- Rhode Island currently spends more than $750 million on Canadian fuel oil
- Pearls, gems, and precious metals are another big ticket item: $172 million a year
- Fish and crustaceans come in at $53 million a year
Bottom line: prices are expected to rise as the 25% tariffs charged on the import of Canadian goods are passed on to consumers.
Rhode Island businesses that export their products to Canada may also suffer, as retaliatory tariffs make their goods less competitive.
“All of us will lose,” consul general Jordan told lawmakers at the statehouse.
“Rhode Island will lose. American consumers will lose. And American businesses will lose,” she said.
Fear of sticker shock for fuel, groceries
New England is particularly reliant on fuel and other energy imports from Canada. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on that sector, instead of the full 25% tax other industries are facing. But experts say even that additional cost is still likely to be passed on to consumers.
“I think the immediate impacts for consumers in New England are going to come in the form of things like prices you see at the pump to fill up your car. The cost to restock the oil tank in the basement for heating purposes, things like that,” said Dan Dolan, with the New England Power Generators Association.
New England imports 9% of its electric power from Canada, along with 80% of its gas and diesel fuel.
The region’s dependence on Canadian fossil fuels could drive up costs for anyone with a car or truck. And, of course, the tariffs could change.
“This is a complex situation with many moving parts,” Randy Burlingame, a spokesman for energy grid operator ISO New England, said in an email.
At a time when high food prices continue to drive frustration for shoppers, a 25% tax on Canadian agricultural imports may mean even more sticker shock at grocery stores.
Rhode Island imported $40 million in agricultural products in 2023, according to a report from the Canadian government, including $7.3 million worth of pork, $6.0 million in baked goods, and $3.2 million in fruits and nuts.
Massachusetts imported $945 million in agricultural products in 2023.
Already there are indications the trade war could escalate. On Monday, Ontario premier Doug Ford threatened to cut off electricity to U.S. customers if the tariffs continue.
“They rely on our energy, they need to feel the pain,” Ford said. “They want to come at us hard, we’re going to come back twice as hard.”
New England imports its electricity from Quebec, not Ontario. But that sort of tough talk worries the people who manage the region’s power grid.
NHPR’s Todd Bookman and The New England News Collaborative contributed to this story.
This story was reported by The Public’s Radio.
