Six Big Questions About Rhode Island’s 2026 Race For Governor

The Rhode Island General Assembly is set to approve a budget and recess later this month, signaling the approach to the next statewide election season. With that in mind, here are some of the top questions looming over the race for the state’s top job.

If you’re not a fan of the incumbent, a finding last week from the UNH Survey Center — showing McKee’s approval rating — cemented a perception that the 73-year-old governor’s political stock is falling. It’s also unclear if the Laborers, who provided vital support for McKee in 2022, will stick with him. But McKee wouldn’t be running if he didn’t think he had a real shot of winning, and he has a history of squeaking through tight elections. He’s staffing up with a new campaign manager and a new finance director. Former NEARI executive director Robert A. Walsh Jr., a McKee supporter, questions the findings of the UNH Survey Center poll since, he said, it is based on responses from the entire Rhode Island population, not likely Democratic voters. Pointing to how U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, generally the most-approved elected official in Rhode Island, came in at a semi-tepid 53% in the UNH poll, Walsh said he would put actual support 15 to 20 points higher. That sounds a little high, but McKee’s approval — although not stellar — has been better in other polls. And Rhode Island political history is flecked with examples of elected officials who overcame low poll ratings — David Cicilline in 2012, for example, and Gina Raimondo in 2018 — to win re-election.

Gov. McKee will get another shot to change the narrative with an expected announcement Friday on the finalist to complete the new westbound Washington Bridge. But even that event carries risk, depending on how voters react to the cost and the timeline for the project. McKee previously tried changing how voters perceive the bridge controversy, describing it as something he inherited. But the emergency closure in December 2023 came on his watch and there are questions about whether the state missed opportunities to discover the problem earlier. “The longer that Rhode Island commuters, drivers, voters see the crumbled Washington Bridge and are stuck in traffic, I think the more cemented dissatisfaction is with Gov. McKee,” said Wendy Schiller, a professor of political science at Brown University.

Foulkes had a rare set of attributes when she walked on Rhode Island’s political stage almost four years ago, possessing high-level business experience, considerable wealth and the ability to come across like a pleasant next-door neighbor. In that latter aspect, she was far ahead of where Raimondo was when she first ran for governor in 2014. And the more Rhode Islanders saw of Foulkes, the more people liked her. She wound up losing the 2022 Democratic primary to McKee by less than 3 points. Foulkes got into the race late, and she didn’t display the appetite to go on the attack wielded by GOP candidate Ashley Kalus. That may have shielded her from union-backed attacks based on CVS and the Woonsocket-based corporation’s management of opioids. CVS will remain in play as an issue next year, and Attorney General Peter Neronha is now suing a CVS-controlled pharmacy benefit manager. Foulkes remains under wraps for now, avoiding interviews with political reporters. Once she emerges, it won’t be a surprise if her campaign flexes a sharper, more focused line of attack than in ’22. Meanwhile, via campaign spokesman Jon Romano, Foulkes is ruling out running as an independent: “Recent public polling reflects what Helena is hearing in every corner of our state: Rhode Islanders are dissatisfied with both our current state leadership and the direction of Rhode Island. Helena is gearing up towards a final decision. Anything she announces will be as a Democrat.”

The Warwick Democrat has crafted an image as a different kind of speaker, someone well-liked and respected by his members, focused on policy and housing and other issues, with a canny sense of politics and free from the whiff of scandal associated with many past legislative leaders. He never says no to an interview and has a campaign account with more than $3 million. Shekarchi has previously said he didn’t see himself running against McKee in a primary, but it’s open to question if he will change his mind, potentially making a play for the Laborers’ support. The speaker is the de facto head of the Democratic Party in Rhode Island, a sway that could lead rivals to paint him as the insider’s insider. A general election opponent could lean harder on decades of Democratic rule and why Rhode Island hasn’t made more progress on the economy and public education.

Republicans used to routinely win elections for governor in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, but not so much lately. Not since Don Carcieri won re-election in 2006 has the GOP won here for governor. Carcieri is instructive since he emerged fully-formed from the woodwork as an appealing candidate with business experience and good communication skills. But Republicans haven’t cultivated much of a farm team since then. Ashley Kalus faced a handicap as a recent transplant in 2022, but has remained in Rhode Island, moving to Providence, and she’s said she’s considering another run.

It’s unclear for now if the UNH Survey Center poll from last week will lead more candidates to jump into the race for governor. (Would the perception that McKee is vulnerable help him by making for a bigger field?) Term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha is a question mark and Secretary of State Gregg Amore, who has said he plans to seek re-election, gets some mentions. The backdrop for the 2026 campaign will include cuts from the Trump administration in Washington, a tougher fiscal climate in Rhode Island and perhaps some surprises along the way. U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner abruptly ended his gubernatorial run in 2022 to pursue a bid for Congress. More recently, he last year declined to rule out a run for governor.