The number of college students in Rhode Island has been falling for many years, and the declining birth rate since the Great Recession is about to make that problem worse, with enrollment numbers expected to drop significantly over the next decade. Many colleges and universities are scrambling to figure out how to survive with fewer students.
Production Director James Baumgartner spoke with Meredith Wombley, Vice President of Enrollment Management at Johnson & Wales University, about how the college is preparing for what’s been dubbed the “demographic cliff.”
TRANSCRIPT:
This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
James Baumgartner: So tell us how Johnson & Wales University has been impacted by the reduction in student enrollment we’ve been seeing in recent years. How many students are enrolled at JWU compared to, say, the start of the Great Recession in 2008?
Meredith Twombley: So we’ve seen a big reduction since the Great Recession, but then the pandemic hit in 2020, which every college saw a reduction following those two events. We’re down about 50% from where we were going back, say, to 2011. In recent years, the last three years, we’ve actually increased our first-year, first-time, on-ground enrollment, so we’ve sort of leveled out. But we know in 2025, I sort of think of it as a shift is coming where there is going to be a slow but very steady downturn in the college-age population just available. So we’re prepping for that.
Baumgartner: What are some strategies JWU is considering to address this issue? Any tuition increases to offset that potential loss?
Twombley: No, I don’t think we think that anything out of the ordinary in terms of an inflation-related tuition increase is the way to really solve the problem. Students and families are really concerned about affordability. They’re really concerned about the debt associated with college. So I think what we’re trying to focus on is, one, let’s keep the students that we have for four years or three years, depending on which degree they’ve actually signed up for. On average, college retention for first-year students hovers around 70%. Now, we’ve been able to get ours up to over 80% in the last year or so, and if we can keep increasing that number, we can make up for some of the anticipated downturn in enrollment.
The other thing that we can do is really make sure we have the programs that students want. That means having a very nimble academic portfolio. I mean, if you look at industry right now, if you look at the world around us, things are changing. And the advent of AI, the needs in the healthcare industry, all of these things have to impact how we’re looking at our academic portfolio and making sure that it adapts to what students want and need.
Baumgartner: We saw Rhode Island College recently announce a series of program cuts. Is this something that Johnson & Wales is considering?
Twombley: Right now, no. We’re really looking at level-setting our program portfolio. We think we’ve made the right adjustments. I mean, we have eliminated programs over the last 20 years and even over the last five years, and introduced new ones in their place. I will tell you, honestly, the conversation around campus right now is we think we have the right portfolio for the near term, and now we’re going to make the most of the programs that we have.
Baumgartner: Could we maybe see tuition decreases in the coming years as a way to make college more competitive?
Twombley: That is not something that we’re talking about specifically right now. We introduced the JWU Pledge in the last six months, which basically offers the equivalent of free tuition to families from certain states whose family income is less than $80,000. That’s through a combination of federal, state and JWU financial aid sources. So we are looking at affordability in very specific instances, but in terms of a tuition reduction, if you study the industry – I’ve been in higher ed for 25 years – those rarely work out very well. It’s very hard to predict how a tuition reduction is going to impact your net operating budget five years down the line because the environment is changing, and inflation rates are changing. I think that’s probably the least likely way we’d go, but we’re very focused on affordability.
Baumgartner: You recently announced 91 staff and faculty layoffs to help close a $34 million operating deficit. Do you see more layoffs on the horizon?
Twombley: I do not think there are. Going into the next 15 years, where nationally there will be fewer students expected to be going to college, we have to budget conservatively. Up until very recently, even into the pandemic, colleges, by and large, tended to budget with a bias towards assumed growth, and that’s just impossible. We cannot do that anymore.
Baumgartner: Many colleges and universities across the country have been forced to completely close in recent years because of the big decline in student populations. Does the coming demographic cliff pose any sort of existential threat to Johnson & Wales?
Twombley: Immediately, no. If you just look at the last 10 years and look at what we’ve added to our portfolio just in terms of health sciences, between a physician assistant program, occupational therapy, nursing, exercise, science, nutrition, and dietetics, public health, health science – all of these programs are growing for us right now. And they’re expensive programs to run from the get-go because they require investments. We made those investments before the demographic cliff came, and I really think that positions us incredibly well. On the other side of the coin, we have two programs that we’re nationally and internationally known for that continue to attract students really in incredible numbers, and that’s culinary and hospitality.
Baumgartner: Will Johnson & Wales become more reliant on attracting international students to fill this enrollment void?
Twombley: We have to think a little bit conservatively about what we can expect out of the international student market, just because there is uncertainty right now having to do with student visas and, just, is the United States the most desirable place for an international student to land may be coming into question. I’m not going to say that all is lost or anything like that. We actually have a very healthy pool of students who are committed to Johnson & Wales from other countries for next fall, but we need to wait and see; will they get their visas? Will it all happen in a timely manner so that they’re able to actually show up and enroll officially? It’s too soon to tell.
Baumgartner: College has become a tough sell for some students and families who worry about the escalating cost of a higher education. How do you convince a smaller pool of students that an education at Johnson & Wales is worth the money?
Twombley: I think by having outcomes data available, by having the program portfolio that students want. Students know that they want to get somewhere over the next five or 10 years. If we can almost guarantee that yes, you will achieve that goal if you join us, then it isn’t a tough sell at all.
